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37Buffett
Hilton Worldwide Holdings Deep-Dive Value Investment Research
A global hotel brand platform with 27 brands, 9,200+ properties, 1.33 million rooms, and 251 million Hilton Honors members. Its asset-light management and franchise model and 525,000-room development pipeline are excellent, but the current price of $321.08 already sits near the top of the optimistic valuation range, while its 2.7% FCF yield trails the 10-year Treasury. Report rating Watch: a high-quality compounder worth following, but not attractive enough for new capital at today’s price.
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Carvana Co.: A Deep-Dive Value Investing Analysis
The largest online used-car retailer in the U.S.; it recovered sharply from its 2022 crisis to $1.881 billion of operating profit by 2025, but the Garcia family's dual-class shares plus the TRA burden weigh on governance, and at a post-split $68.28 the stock sits 113-210% above the base-case range with no margin of safety. Rating: Watch.
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49Buffett
Valero Energy Corporation: A Long-Term Value Investing Study
One of the three largest independent refiners in the United States, with strong operations and a sound balance sheet, yet fundamentally a spread business with no real pricing power. At the current price of $246.96, the stock already sits near the floor of the optimistic scenario and offers no margin of safety. Rating Watch: an excellent operator in a poor industry, fairly priced for a continued upcycle rather than for safety.
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79Buffett
The Sherwin-Williams Company: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
North America's largest coatings company, whose network of 5,400+ company-operated stores forms its core moat; at the current $309.08 it trades at 28.9x P/FCF with a 3.5% free-cash-flow yield (below the 10Y Treasury's 4.57%), above the upper bound of the $240-280 fair-value range, warranting a Watch rating.
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41Buffett
Kinder Morgan: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
North America's largest energy transportation and storage infrastructure company, with 78,000 miles of pipelines and a natural gas segment that generates 65% of revenue; at the current $33.79 the stock trades at 22.7x P/E and 15-16x P/Owner Earnings, with a 3.5% dividend yield below the 10Y Treasury's 4.57%, earning a Watch rating.
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42Buffett
EOG Resources: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
A leading U.S. independent upstream oil and gas producer, with a five-year average ROCE of about 24% and still 18.7% in 2025. At the current $141.22 it trades at 15.2x P/E and 16.2x P/FCF, with a 2.9% dividend yield below the 4.57% 10-year Treasury, leaving an insufficient margin of safety; rated Watch.
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35Buffett
SLB: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
A global leader in oilfield services and oil & gas technology, with 2025 revenue of $35.708 billion and 78.3% from international markets. At the current $57.28, it trades at ~21x P/FCF and 19–20x owner earnings, already above the $43–50 fair-value range. Rating: Watch.
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81Buffett
Moody's from a Long-Term Owner's Perspective
Moody's is a dual-engine platform built on credit ratings and risk analytics, with MA at 96% recurring revenue and ROIC around 30%. At the current price of $449.12, the stock trades at about 31x P/E and 29x owner earnings, while its OE yield of 3.4% sits below the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield of 4.67%. Report rating Watch: a high-quality compounder, but the margin of safety is not yet clear.
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73Buffett
Northrop Grumman: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
One of the top U.S. defense prime contractors (No. 3 globally per SIPRI), spanning B-21, Sentinel, missile defense, and space systems; at $555.58 the stock trades at about 17.4x PE but 22.6-26.4x Owner Earnings, and with the Sentinel cost breach, B-21 margin pressure, and cash flow weaker than reported profit, we assign a Watch rating.
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76Buffett
Simon Property Group: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
The largest high-quality retail real estate REIT in the U.S., rated A/A3 with 93.8% fixed-rate debt and 96% occupancy; at the current $204.41 the stock sits in the upper-middle of its fair-value range, and its 4.4% dividend yield is actually below the 10Y Treasury, leaving a thin margin of safety, so we assign a Hold rating.
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Marsh: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
The world's largest insurance-broking and advisory platform (Marsh/Marsh Re/Mercer/Oliver Wyman), capital-light with high ROE and FY2025 revenue of $26.981 billion. At the current $164.11 the owner-earnings yield is about 6%, sitting at the low end of the fair-value range with no discount to the conservative range. Rated Watch.
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77Buffett
Emerson Electric: A Long-Term Owner's View
Emerson Electric is an industrial automation and industrial software platform that has reshaped its portfolio through the Copeland divestiture and the full acquisitions of NI and AspenTech. At $136.42, the stock trades at 31.6x P/E and a 4.08% FCF yield, already above a reasonable value range with limited margin of safety. Research rating Watch: a higher-quality business, but current pricing leaves too little room for conservative long-term investors.
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3M Company: A Deep-Value Investment Analysis
Diversified industrial manufacturer (Safety and Industrial / Transportation and Electronics / Consumer segments, plus Post-it and Scotch brands), rated "Watch": at $152.44 the stock trades around 18x normalized owner earnings, but PFAS and Combat Arms Earplugs litigation is draining cash; ideal buy price is $110-130.
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KKR: A Value-Investing Deep Dive
A top-tier global alternative-asset platform (alternative asset management + Global Atlantic insurance + strategic holdings). At 94.04 dollars the stock is roughly fair on neutral assumptions, but a governance discount, insurance risk, and a not-cheap ~22x conservative owner earnings leave little margin of safety. Rating Watch: a high-quality but complex compounder worth waiting on, with an ideal buy zone of 70-85 dollars.
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62Buffett
Intercontinental Exchange from a Long-Term Business Owner's Perspective
Intercontinental Exchange is a global financial market infrastructure group spanning NYSE exchanges, fixed-income data, and mortgage technology. The core thesis is that ICE is a high-quality compounder with durable cash generation, but at $152.97 its conservative Owner Earnings yield of 4.6% is already close to U.S. Treasuries and leaves an insufficient margin of safety. Rating Watch: wait for a better entry point around $120-135 rather than paying a full price for quality.
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72Buffett
WM: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
North America's largest solid-waste disposal network (257 landfills, 38-year weighted average remaining life) plus Stericycle medical waste; steady cash flow with 23 consecutive years of dividend increases; at roughly $217.9 the stock sits near the top of its neutral intrinsic-value range with no discount and no clear margin of safety, warranting a Watch rating.
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75Buffett
HCA Healthcare: A Long-Term Owner's View
HCA is the largest integrated hospital network in the United States, with 2025 revenue of $75.6 billion, Adjusted EBITDA of $15.6 billion, and FCF of $7.69 billion. Its cash flow is real, but leverage is high, with net debt of $48.0 billion, and the business is highly sensitive to regulation. Research rating Watch: at roughly $394, the stock sits near the upper end of the conservative range, with no obvious margin of safety.
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33Buffett
The Williams Companies: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
The leading U.S. natural gas midstream infrastructure player, with its Transco system carrying roughly 1/3 of the nation's natural gas. 2025 adjusted EBITDA reached $7.75 billion, but at a trailing 34.4x P/E the stock is already expensive and rising growth capex weakens the margin of safety. Rating Watch: a good business with hard assets and strong cash flow, yet today's price already builds in high expectations for future growth.
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84Buffett
Trane Technologies: A Long-Term Owner's View
Trane Technologies is a global leader in HVAC, buildings, and cold-chain solutions, with 2025 revenue of $21.3 billion, backlog rising to $10.7 billion, and book-to-bill reaching 135%. The business is high quality, but at the current 34.9x PE multiple, the stock already prices in a great deal of quality and growth, leaving insufficient margin of safety. Rating Watch: a strong compounder to follow closely, but not a compelling new-money buy at today's price.
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65Buffett
McKesson: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
A U.S. pharmaceutical distribution oligopoly with FY2026 revenue of $403.4 billion. The profit pool is migrating toward higher-quality businesses such as Oncology and RxTS, yet at the current price the margin of safety is thin and CVS accounts for 24% of revenue. Rating Watch: a high-quality business, but not a bargain at today's price.
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25Buffett
Freeport-McMoRan: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective
A leading global copper-gold-molybdenum miner (copper 74% / gold 17% / molybdenum 7%) with scarce but highly concentrated flagship assets at Grasberg, Morenci, and Cerro Verde; the current price already pays up for a restart-plus-long-term-copper-tightness narrative, with the margin of safety unclear.
44/100
Berkshire Hathaway Deep Value Study: A Fair Price for a Great Company
Berkshire remains an extremely high-quality compound-asset platform with very low risk of permanent loss. But at a price near $486, it already sits close to the center of fair value with no obvious margin of safety, better suited to 'small, staged buying' than to backing up the truck. Rating: Hold.
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64Buffett
Salesforce: A Long-Term Owner's View
Salesforce is the global CRM leader, with FY2026 revenue of $41.525 billion, free cash flow of $14.402 billion, subscriptions at 95% of revenue, and cRPO of $35.1 billion. At the current share price of $180.07, the stock trades at roughly 13.5 times conservative owner earnings, within a reasonable value band but without a clear margin of safety. Research rating Watch: a high-quality software platform whose cash-flow durability is evident, but whose current price leaves limited room for execution risk.
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Chevron Corporation: A Value-Investing Deep Dive
A top-tier global integrated energy company with strong asset quality and disciplined capital returns; but the industry is inherently deeply cyclical, and after the Hess acquisition the valuation already sits near the optimistic scenario, so the current $191 price offers no margin of safety. Rating: Watch.