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53/100
80Buffett
Sika AG：循環的なエアポケットにある高品質コンパウンダー
Sikaは建設用化学品（混和剤、防水材、シーラント、屋根材、産業用接着剤）の世界的リーダーであり、100カ国超・400以上の工場を通じて地域に適応したシステムを販売し、ParexやMBCCのようなボルトオン型M&Aをそのモデルに組み込んでいる。2025年の売上高はスイスフラン高と建設サイクルの軟化により4.8%減の112.0億スイスフランとなったが、現地通貨ベースの成長はプラスを維持し、素材マージンは54.9%に上昇、MBCCのシナジーは1.82億スイスフランに達した。評価はホールド：一流のシリアル・アクワイアラー型コンパウンダーが循環的なエアポケットに捕まっている状態だが、直近利益の約26倍という評価はオーガニック成長が回復する前からマージン回復の多くを既に織り込んでいる。
51/100
81Buffett
NARI Technology: Grid-Control Franchise, Quality Already Priced
NARI is the dominant listed proxy for China's grid-control layer: dispatch software, relay protection, UHV control and energy-management systems built around State Grid. 2025 revenue reached RMB 66.23bn with operating cash flow of RMB 12.77bn, yet revenue is outgrowing profit as the mix shifts toward lower-margin storage and outside-grid work. Rating Hold: a high-quality policy-cycle compounder whose roughly 22x trailing valuation leaves little margin of safety against further mix dilution.
48/100
AVIC Jonhon Optronic: Defense-Grade Interconnect Leader, Recovery Already Priced
AVIC Jonhon is a Chinese high-reliability interconnect maker whose defense-grade connector core still carries the business (connectors are 98.5% of revenue) while EVs, data centers and optics become the larger growth engine. 2025 revenue edged up 3.4% to RMB 21.39 billion but attributable profit fell 35.6% to about RMB 2.16 billion as defense demand softened and gold, copper and silver costs surged, and at RMB 42.69 the stock already trades on a mid-40s trailing multiple that discounts a recovery while cash conversion stays weak. Rating Hold: the franchise is intact and a rebound is plausible, but today's price pre-spends most of it with no margin of safety.
53/100
80Buffett
Straumann Holding AG：厳しい株価水準にあるデンタル・プラットフォームのリーダー
Straumannはスペシャルティ歯科分野の世界的リーダーであり、プレミアムインプラントメーカーから、インプラント・デジタルワークフロー・生体材料・補綴物・クリアアライナーにまたがるマルチブランド・マルチ価格帯グループへと成長したスイスのプラットフォーム企業で、2025年度売上高はCHF 26.1億、CHF 60億のインプラント市場の約35%を占める。フランチャイズの質は本物であり（ROCE 30.6%、株主資本比率57.6%、10年にわたるシェア拡大）、一方で粗利率は価値帯・デジタル比率の上昇に伴い76.2%から68.6%へ、フリーキャッシュフロー率は21.8%から11.1%へ低下しており、株価はコア利益の約35.8倍、フリーキャッシュフロー利回り1.7%で取引されている。評価はホールド：長い滑走路を持つ高品質なコンパウンダーだが、株価はすでに次のマージン・エコシステム局面の多くを織り込んでおり、安全域はほとんど残っていない。
52/100
84Buffett
GSK plc: Rebuilt Biopharma, Racing the Patent Cliff
GSK plc is a UK biopharma rebuilt around vaccines and specialty medicines after the 2022 Haleon demerger, with 2025 sales of £32.7bn anchored by Shingrix and the ViiV HIV franchise. Specialty medicines now drive growth (£13.5bn, +14% CER in Q1 2026) and core operating profit rose 11% to £9.8bn, yet the whole story hinges on replacing the dolutegravir HIV cliff in 2028–2030 before it arrives. Rating Hold: a genuinely higher-quality franchise at roughly 11.6x core earnings, but the price already assumes much of the patent-cliff bridge, leaving little margin of safety.
60/100
72Buffett
サングロウ・パワー・サプライ：循環的な殻をまとう高品質成長
サングロウ・パワー・サプライは、太陽光インバーターとエネルギー貯蔵システムにおける創業者主導のグローバルリーダーであり、海外売上高は2025年収益の60.7%を占め、貯蔵事業は今や売上高の41.9%を占める最大セグメントとなっている。営業キャッシュフローはCN¥169億まで増加し、売掛金も改善したが、2026年第1四半期の売上高は18.3%減、利益は40.1%減となり、品質ストーリーの裏にある鋭いマージンミックスの循環性を露呈した。評価はホールド：真の品質成長フランチャイズだが、プレミアム価格で取引されており、執行ミスに対する安全マージンはほとんど残されていない。
U.S. Market Close Daily | 2026-06-26
Major indexes edged lower as an AI and semiconductor reset outweighed better breadth, cheaper oil, and lower Treasury yields.
42/100
94Buffett
Games Workshop: An Exceptional Warhammer Compounder, Priced for Continued Excellence
Games Workshop is the vertically integrated owner of the Warhammer universe, designing, manufacturing and selling miniatures, paints, books and licensed media from a single UK creative stack at returns on capital few public companies reach. FY2025 delivered £617.5m of total revenue and £262.8m of profit before tax, and FY2026 is guided higher even as the volatile licensing line steps down from £52.5m to at least £30m. Rating Hold: an exceptional IP compounder whose roughly 35x earnings multiple already prepays years of flawless execution, leaving no margin of safety at £217.
38/100
Simulations Plus: A Credible Drug-Modeling Specialist, Now Priced as a Near-Cash Deal Stock
Simulations Plus builds scientifically trusted drug-development modeling software (GastroPlus, MonolixSuite, ADMET Predictor, DILIsym), but its revenue mix has drifted toward lower-margin services since the 2024 Pro-ficiency acquisition, which pulled FY2025 gross margin to 58% and triggered a $77.2m impairment. On 2026-06-26 the equity trades as a near-cash event security: Altaris' agreed $18.50-per-share takeout caps upside just above the $18.14 close, while a broken deal would reopen real downside. Rating Avoid: a thin-spread cash-deal security whose unresolved software-mix question still sits underneath the transaction.
38/100
Carl Zeiss Meditec: A High-Grade Ophthalmology Franchise Forced to Relearn Its Operating Model in China
Carl Zeiss Meditec is a premium German ophthalmology and microsurgery franchise where ophthalmology drives about 77% of sales and recurring revenue has climbed from 9% two decades ago to roughly 50%. A simultaneous China VBP shock and weak Americas equipment demand crushed H1 FY2025/26 adjusted EBITA margin to 6.1% from 10.7%, and the shares have fallen more than 80% from their 2021 peak to 27.96 euros. Rating Watch: a high-quality medtech franchise in a real trough, but the China relisting and margin-restoration bridge is still too unproven for a clean entry, with the ideal buy zone at 24 to 26 euros.
45/100
77Buffett
SAP: A High-Quality Incumbent Late in Its Cloud Migration, Now Priced for Proof Rather Than Possibility
SAP is the incumbent enterprise-applications vendor migrating its captive ERP installed base from license-and-support to cloud subscriptions, where process centrality keeps converting into long-duration economics. In 2025 cloud revenue reached 21.0 billion euros and predictable revenue 86%, with total cloud backlog of 77.3 billion euros, yet FY2026 guidance for slightly decelerating current-backlog growth reset the stock more than 50% below its early-2025 peak to about 21.5x earnings. Rating Hold: the cloud transition is genuinely working and the franchise is high quality, but at today's price the market already asks for proof rather than possibility, with the ideal buy zone at 95 to 101 euros.
42/100
Shimano: A Fortress Cycling Franchise in a Real Trough, But the Price Already Pays for the Repair
Shimano is a century-old Japanese precision manufacturer whose bicycle drivetrain and braking franchise still drives roughly three-quarters of group sales, with fishing tackle the resilient second engine. Group operating income has fallen from a 169.2 billion yen pandemic peak in 2022 to a guided 47.0 billion yen in 2026 (margin near 10% against a historical 20% to 25%), and at 17,340 yen (about 35x guided earnings) the price already discounts much of the eventual repair, leaving no margin of safety. Rating Hold: a fortress-quality franchise in a real but uncertain trough, where the moat is intact yet the entry price is not yet compelling, with the ideal buy zone at 12,000 to 14,000 yen.
51/100
83Buffett
Hengrui Pharmaceuticals: A Fortress Innovation Platform, But RMB 50 Already Pays for the Upgrade
Hengrui Pharmaceuticals is China's largest listed innovative-drug platform, still earning mainly from domestic drug sales while its valuation increasingly rests on converting self-funded R&D into commercial franchises and recurring overseas licensing income. 2025 revenue reached RMB 31.63 billion with net profit of RMB 7.71 billion and a fortress balance sheet holding RMB 40.16 billion of cash, yet at RMB 50.04 (about 41x trailing earnings) the price sits above the conservative fair value and leaves no margin of safety. Rating Hold: a rare high-quality China pharma platform already priced for an innovation-monetization upgrade it has not yet fully earned.
U.S. Market Close Daily | 2026-06-25
U.S. stocks closed mixed in a sector-rotation tape as semiconductor strength offset pressure from mega-cap consumer technology and sticky inflation kept rate risk in focus.
40/100
23Buffett
Pan American Silver: Juanicipio Upgrades the Silver Book, But $44 Already Pays for the Transition
Pan American Silver is an Americas-focused, silver-first precious-metals miner whose September 2025 MAG acquisition added a 44% stake in the high-grade Juanicipio mine, lifting 2026 guidance to 25-27 Moz silver and 700-750 koz gold on a net-cash balance sheet. The portfolio is genuinely better than the 2022 trough, but at $44.39 the stock trades near 9.2x EV/EBITDA on a 7% free-cash-flow yield, already pricing the upgrade while Escobal and Navidad stay politically frozen and 2026 cost guidance leans on $70 silver against roughly $58 spot. Rating Hold: a better silver miner with no clear margin of safety, where a buy needs either the mid-$20s or proof that normalized free cash flow holds closer to the base case than the conservative one.
45/100
RemeGen: Two Self-Developed Drug Franchises and an Export Licensing Engine, With the A-Share Already Pricing a Cleaner Future Than the Filings Justify
RemeGen is a commercializing China innovative-biopharma with two self-developed franchises — telitacicept in autoimmune disease and disitamab vedotin in ADC oncology — plus an ex-China licensing engine (Vor Bio, Santen, AbbVie) that has become part of the business model. 2025 product sales reached CNY 2.31bn (up 35.8%) and reported profit turned positive at CNY 709.7m, but operating cash flow was only CNY 52.3m (about 0.07x conversion), Q1 2026 profit after non-recurring items stayed negative, and the A-share trades at roughly a 96.5% premium to the H-share — above even the optimistic per-share value. Rating Avoid: a good company at the wrong price on the Shanghai line, where an entry needs both a lower A-share price (CNY 36-40) and proof that recurring earnings quality has caught up to the approvals.
44/100
46Buffett
Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline: A Precision-Gear Cash Engine Carrying a Still-Optional Robot-Reducer Bet
Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline is a precision-gear specialist whose profit still comes from automotive transmission and e-drive gears, with robot RV reducers (housed in 61.29%-owned Huandong, now seeking a STAR Market listing) as a still-speculative second engine. Four straight years of rising revenue (CNY 9.11bn in 2025) and attributable profit (CNY 1.262bn), with operating cash flow above net income every year, make the transition credible, yet Q1 2026 recurring profit fell 4.04% and the loudest humanoid-customer claims stay unverified in primary filings. Rating Hold: the auto-gear cash engine is real and the reducer option is credible, but at CNY 39.42 the price already capitalizes much of that optionality, leaving no obvious margin of safety.
47/100
Kelun-Biotech: A Commercializing China ADC Franchise Priced for Much of Its sac-TMT and MSD Global Success
Kelun-Biotech is a commercial-stage China ADC developer whose equity value is dominated by its sac-TMT (TROP2) franchise in Greater China plus ex-China royalty economics from MSD. In 2025 product sales inflected to RMB542.7m within RMB2.06bn total revenue and the balance sheet held RMB4.56bn cash with no borrowings, yet the company still posted a RMB382.0m net loss as nearly all equity value concentrates in one molecule. Rating Hold: a real ADC franchise is forming, but at HK$419 the stock already prices in much of the sac-TMT China plus MSD global success path and offers no margin of safety.
36/100
39Buffett
Gold Fields: A De-Rated but Reshaped Global Gold Miner Still Priced for Execution and Country Risk
Gold Fields is a globally diversified gold miner running eight operating mines across South Africa, Ghana, Chile, Peru and Australia plus the Windfall project in Canada, reshaped around the new Salares Norte flagship and the Osisko and Gold Road acquisitions. 2025 delivered a realized gold price of US$3,496/oz, production of 2.438Moz and adjusted free cash flow of US$2.97 billion, yet the US ADR has de-rated quickly from US$38.60 to US$31.88 in a broad gold selloff rather than on any company-specific break. Rating Cautious Buy: an improved but still-cyclical portfolio trading at a discount to peers, where Salares Norte execution and Ghana Tarkwa fiscal terms keep a full-quality rerating away and the ideal buy sits at US$26 to US$29, below the current price.
36/100
26Buffett
AngloGold Ashanti: A Re-Rated Major Gold Miner in Transition, Cash-Rich but Reserve-Light and Priced Near Fair Value
AngloGold Ashanti is a globally diversified major gold miner producing 3.1Moz a year across roughly ten mines, reshaped by the 2024 Centamin/Sukari acquisition and a 2023 redomicile to a UK plc with a primary NYSE listing. 2025 delivered record free cash flow of US$2.9 billion and a year-end adjusted net cash position, but the shares have already re-rated about 69% in a year and a 21.91Moz reserve base implies only about seven years of reserve life against 3.1Moz of annual output. Rating Hold: a much-improved cyclical cash generator now trading near fair value at roughly 0.85x P/NAV, where the easy rerating money has been made and further upside hinges on reserve replacement (Nevada's Arthur) and a gold tape staying generous.
38/100
41Buffett
Barrick Mining: A World-Class Gold-and-Copper Portfolio in Transition, Discounted for Complexity and Priced Near Fair Value
Barrick Mining is a senior gold-and-copper miner with world-class reserve depth (85Moz gold, 18Mt copper), district quality in Nevada and Pueblo Viejo, and a balance sheet strong enough to fund both record shareholder returns and future growth. Record 2025 cash flow (US$7.69 billion operating, US$3.87 billion free) proved the operating leverage, but the stock trades at a persistent discount to peers because sovereign risk in Mali, a Reko Diq budget review, a Newmont dispute over Nevada, and an unfinished North American carve-out all cloud the path from ore to shareholder value. Rating Hold: the gold cash flows and copper optionality are real, but the price already reflects strong metals and leaves only a moderate cushion against execution risk, with a defensible entry only below roughly US$26.
44/100
28Buffett
OR Royalties: A Mid-Tier Royalty Franchise Re-Rating With Visible Growth, Priced Around Fair Value
OR Royalties is a mid-tier precious-metals royalty and streaming company anchored by a 3-5% NSR on the Tier-1 Canadian Malartic mine, with 196 interests and 23 producing assets. 2025 revenue jumped 45% to US$277.4 million on a soaring realized gold price and the company finished the year debt-free, while the 2030 outlook of 120,000-135,000 GEOs is backed by named projects rather than blue-sky exploration; yet much of the earnings step-up is gold-price torque and Canadian Malartic still dominates the story. Rating Hold: a genuinely improving franchise re-rating with visible growth, but priced around fair value, with a defensible entry only in the low-to-mid US$20s, below the conservative fair value of US$28.
41/100
68Buffett
Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group: A Scale Leader in Transition, Priced Around Fair Value
Chow Tai Fook is the scale leader in Greater China branded jewellery, with a mostly franchised mainland network and a profit mix tilting toward higher-margin fixed-price gold products. FY2026 revenue rose 5.3% to HK$94.4 billion while operating profit jumped 27.8% to HK$18.85 billion on richer mix and store rationalisation, yet at HK$11.83 the shares sit around the base-case fair value of HK$12.2 with zero margin of safety and an unresolved debate over margin durability. Rating Hold: a cash-generative, scale-leading franchise re-rating on mix and discipline, but priced around fair value, with a defensible entry only below the conservative fair value of HK$9.8.
U.S. Market Close Daily | 2026-06-24
U.S. equities finished mixed in a sector-rotation tape as semiconductor weakness capped the S&P 500 and Nasdaq while lower oil and yields supported broader breadth.