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52/100
45Buffett
Ares Management: A Deep Dive into the Alternative Asset Management Platform
Ares is an alternative asset management platform: 2025 AUM of 623 billion / FPAUM of 385 billion / management fees of 3.863 billion / FRE of 1.775 billion, with FRE making up 96% of distributable cash. At 124.41 dollars, the stock sits inside our fair-value range, and the margin of safety for new buyers is thin. Rating Watch: a high-quality, moat-widening franchise priced for its growth, where the business is good enough but the price is not generous enough.
42/100
Aptiv: The New Aptiv and Its Automotive Connection Systems
After spinning off EDS in April 2026, the "New Aptiv" is centered on connection systems and software; 2026 guidance calls for revenue of $12.8-13.2 billion and EBITDA of $2.36-2.48 billion. At the current $57.36 the stock sits in the gap between the conservative and fair-value ranges, having just touched the low end of fair value. Rating Watch: a decent business, but the price has not reached bargain territory.
53/100
Apollo Global Management: A Study of a Compounding Alternative-Asset Platform
Apollo is a compound financial enterprise that bundles alternative asset management, insurance liabilities, and credit origination, posting 2025 FRE of $2.528 billion and SRE of $3.361 billion, with AUM reaching roughly $1.03 trillion by Q1 2026. At the current $128.51 the shares sit in the upper-middle of the conservative range and below fair value, leaving the margin of safety too thin. Rating Watch: a high-quality but highly complex platform worth tracking, where I would wait for a more comfortable entry rather than chase the price.
83Buffett
Amphenol: A Deep Dive on Connectors and Interconnect Products
Amphenol is a leader in connectors and interconnect products, with end markets so fragmented that no single customer exceeds 10% of sales, and 2025 free cash flow of roughly 4.4 billion. At the current 132.06 dollars, the 36.4x P/E and 38.7x P/FCF place it at the upper edge of fair value, leaving the starting valuation already very high. Rating Watch: a high-quality compounder fully priced for excellence, with little margin of safety.
42/100
Air Products: A Long-Term Value Study of Industrial Gases
Air Products is one of the global big three in industrial gases, with large FCF swings through its LNG/hydrogen project transition; at $289.47 the stock sits inside the fair-value band, and its 30.6x P/E pays at once for both a good business and a successful turnaround, leaving too little discount. Rating: Watch.
33/100
21Buffett
APA Corporation: Upstream Oil & Gas and the Suriname Option
APA is an upstream oil and gas company combining a Suriname GranMorgu option with a US/Egypt/UK asset base. At roughly $38.8 today it sits at the top of its fair-value range, deeply constrained by oil prices, geopolitics, and ongoing capital spending—a cyclical name rather than a long-term compounder. Rating Watch: a passable operator with an attractive option but no durable moat, where the current price offers little margin of safety for a conservative long-term owner.
41/100
91Buffett
A. O. Smith Water Heaters & Water Treatment Deep Dive
A. O. Smith is North America's leading water heater maker, with 2025 EPS of $3.85 and FCF of $546 million; having just completed the Leonard Valve acquisition and cut full-year guidance, its current price of $57.28 sits in the gap between the conservative and neutral valuation ranges, with only a modest discount.
44/100
Aon Risk and Human Capital Platform Study
Aon is a global risk and human capital advisory-plus-distribution platform, centered on insurance broking, reinsurance, health benefits, and retirement consulting. The business is high-quality and understandable, with sticky client relationships and strong cash generation, but at the current $324.78 and a 17.8x P/E it sits in the upper half of its fair-value range. Rating: Watch—high quality yet not obviously cheap, worth tracking rather than chasing at this price.
56/100
88Buffett
Arista Networks：データセンター・スイッチングのリーダーに関する長期研究
AristaはハイエンドEthernetスイッチングのリーダーであり、EOSソフトウェアスタック、クラウドデータセンターでのエンジニアリング評価、アセットライトなモデル、強力なフリーキャッシュフローを兼ね備えている。現在の156.22ドルでは、過去実績ベースPERの48.6倍は楽観的な本源価値レンジの上限をすでに上回り、高成長期待がかなり先取りされている。評価はウォッチ：事業は卓越しているが、株価は安全域を先に越えて走っている。
45/100
78Buffett
American Tower: Long-Term Value Study of a Communications-Tower REIT
AMT is the world's leading communications-tower REIT, trading at a forward P/AFFO of 16.8x, EV/EBITDA of 16.9x, and net leverage of 4.9x. At the current $183.85 it sits in the middle of its fair-value range, a fair price rather than an undervalued one, lacking a 20-25% margin of safety. Rating: Watch.
47/100
85Buffett
Ameriprise Financial Wealth Management Deep-Dive
Ameriprise is an integrated wealth management, asset management, and insurance/annuity platform with $1.69 trillion in AUM and 40%-50%+ ROE. The core thesis is that its advisor-led platform and disciplined capital return can compound per-share value, but the current $452.31 price and 11.27x trailing PE sit near the lower end of fair value without the wide discount conservative investors require. Report rating Watch: a high-quality financial compounder worth tracking closely, but not yet cheap enough to offset its market sensitivity, asset-management outflows, insurance-accounting complexity, and regulatory risk.
45/100
77Buffett
AMETEK Precision Instruments and Industrial Technology Research
AMETEK is a compounding platform in precision instruments and industrial technology; in Q1 2026 orders grew 23%, sales 11%, and adjusted operating profit 14%, yet at the current $232.70 the price already sits above the upper bound of an optimistic intrinsic value, with market expectations priced in ahead.
35/100
Amcor: Packaging Platform and M&A Integration Study
Amcor is a global leader in flexible and rigid packaging; after the Berry acquisition net debt sits at 14.266 billion and net leverage at 4.2x, on the high side. At the current 38.38 dollars, forward adjusted PE is just 9.6x with a 6.7% dividend yield, but if integration falls short, returns get squeezed back to mediocre. Rating Watch: a defensible, cash-generative packaging platform whose payoff hinges on Berry synergies landing and deleveraging executing.
44/100
87Buffett
Allegion Access Control and Electronic Security Deep Dive
Allegion is a leader in access-control locks and electronic security. In 2025 it posted revenue of $4.067 billion and free cash flow of $686 million; at the current $130.43 the stock sits between the conservative and neutral value ranges, and its 6.1% equity FCF yield offers thin risk compensation over the 4.56% 10-year U.S. Treasury. Rating Watch: a high-quality business, but today's price is merely fair, not cheap.
42/100
Allstate: Personal P&C Insurance and Protection Services Study
Allstate is the third-largest U.S. personal property & casualty insurer; its 2025 combined ratio of 85.2% sits at a multi-year low; at the current $216.60 the stock falls within the fair-value band, its strong earnings carry an underwriting-cycle tailwind, and the margin of safety has thinned.
45/100
85Buffett
Align Technology: Digital Orthodontics Platform Study
Align's Invisalign has cumulatively treated 22 million patients across some 300,000 doctor customers; with a 2021-2025 revenue CAGR of only 0.5% and declining margins, at the current $163.6 the stock sits between the upper bound of conservative intrinsic value and the lower bound of fair value. Rating: Watch, a good business at only an ordinary price.
42/100
AIG: Property-Casualty Insurance and Capital Return Study
AIG has completed its slim-down into a pure P&C insurer: a 2025 combined ratio of 90.1% and $5.8 billion of buybacks; but its 11.1% core ROE still lags Chubb/Travelers/Hartford, and at $77.05 it lacks a margin of safety below the lower bound of conservative intrinsic value.
44/100
Aflac Supplemental Insurance and Japan Market Study
Aflac is the leader in supplemental insurance in Japan, where the country contributes 69% of profit and where brand and channel barriers run deep; the current $117.86 is already near the upper edge of the fair-value range and lacks the margin of safety conservative investors require.
51/100
74Buffett
Netflix: A Long-Term Business Owner's Perspective
Netflix has shifted from burning cash to generating it reliably, with 2025 revenue of $45.18 billion and Owner Earnings of roughly $9.3-9.5 billion. But at $89.30 the stock trades at about 35-40x conservative Owner Earnings, leaving little margin of safety; the ideal buy zone sits at $50-65. Rating Watch: a high-quality platform that is fully priced today and rewards patience over purchase at the current level.
66/100
81Buffett
NVIDIA 投資メモ
優れた企業だが、価格が悪い。NVIDIA はチップ販売から加速コンピューティング・プラットフォーム全体の販売へと進化を遂げ、圧倒的なキャッシュフローと際立って強固なエコシステムを擁する。しかし現在の株価は220ドル近辺で、すでに楽観シナリオの上限に位置しており、内在的な適正価値110〜140ドルに対して保守的な投資家にとって安全余裕が不足している。レーティングはウォッチ。今なお強くなり続ける卓越した事業ではあるが、今日の価格で買うのは安く買うのではなく究極の質を買う行為である。
45/100
65Buffett
NXP Semiconductors NV: A Deep Dive Through the Lens of a Long-Term Business Owner
NXP is a high-quality semiconductor platform focused on the automotive and industrial edge, with 2025 revenue of $12.269 billion and automotive at roughly 58%; cash flow is solid and it keeps shrinking its share count. But at the current $233.62 it trades at roughly 26-28x Owner Earnings, leaving no obvious margin of safety; the ideal buy zone is $150-180, rating Watch.
44/100
79Buffett
Old Dominion Freight Line: A Value Analysis from the Long-Term Business Owner's Perspective
Great company, bad price. ODFL is an exceptionally high-quality, near-net-cash LTL leader, but at roughly $207.77 the stock trades at 42.9x PE and about 43.7x owner earnings, far above the $65–145 intrinsic-value range, leaving an inadequate margin of safety. This is a company worth tracking long-term but not worth acquiring at today's price with an owner's mindset. Final rating: Watch.
48/100
88Buffett
O'Reilly Automotive: A Long-Term Business Owner's Research Report
O'Reilly Automotive is a high-quality auto aftermarket leader with a durable moat and strong cash generation. The core issue is valuation: at $92.34, the stock is already close to an optimistic case, with fair intrinsic value around $75 to $95 and an ideal entry range of $65 to $75. Rating Watch: a durable compounder, but the margin of safety is not yet compelling.
50/100
Palo Alto Networks Long-Term Value Investment Deep Dive
Palo Alto Networks is a high-quality cybersecurity platform business with strong cash flow, durable customer demand, and a moat that is still widening through platformization. The problem is price: at about $252.92 as of 2026-05-22, the stock is already close to an optimistic scenario, while my conservative intrinsic value range is $150–180. Research rating Watch: a strong business, but the current price leaves too little margin of safety for a conservative long-term value investor.