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AB SKF
SKF-B · ST
Watch
SKF: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective

A Swedish bearings leader whose industrial aftermarket makes up 53% of sales, a structural edge over pure-OEM peers, yet held back by an unfinished automotive spin-off and a static P/E of 28.5x. At SEK 245.5 the stock sits at the upper edge of fair value and looks slightly rich, with an ideal buy range of SEK 150-190. Rating Watch: a respectable quality compounder, but today's price leaves too thin a margin of safety.

Diversified Industrials Baillie 32 Jun 3, 2026
Mercury Systems, Inc.
MRCY · US
Avoid
Mercury Systems: A Long-Term Owner's Study

A supplier of high-reliability electronics and signal-processing platforms for aerospace and defense, with gross margin recovering from a fall of 41.7% to 27.9%; at $112.87 the stock trades above 90x FCF, pricing in an excellent outcome while operating quality stays unproven. Rating Avoid: a strong industry attached to an unproven turnaround already priced for perfection, with an ideal buy of $25–35.

Aerospace & Defense Baillie 22 Jun 3, 2026
Kencoa Aerospace
274090 · Korea
Watch
Kencoa Aerospace: A Value Study of an Aerostructures Supplier

The Buffett framework rates Kencoa Aerospace a Watch. The company has cleared the entry barriers of the aerospace supply chain and grew Q1 2026 revenue 45% year over year, yet free cash flow was negative for five straight years (2021-2025) and a perpetual convertible bond, if fully converted, dilutes existing holders by about 67.7%. At roughly KRW 23,700 the stock already prices in a strong turnaround; fair value sits at KRW 12,000-18,000 and an ideal entry at KRW 10,000-14,000, leaving no margin of safety. Rating Watch: a barrier-cleared turnaround small cap that has not yet proven it can convert orders into durable, distributable per-share cash flow.

Aerospace & Defense Baillie 24 Jun 3, 2026
Toray Industries, Inc.
3402 · TSE
Watch
Toray Industries: A Long-Term Owner's Study

On the Buffett framework, the verdict is Watch. Toray expects roughly JPY 2.585 trillion of FY2026 revenue, yet ROIC is just 4.7% and ROE 4.5%. At about JPY 1,160 (P/B 0.94) the stock looks cheaper than book, but a conservative owner-earnings figure of about JPY 77 billion implies 22x, which is not cheap. Rating Watch: a complex materials group with some excellent assets but a margin of safety that is not yet there at a fair-buy band of JPY 850–950.

Specialty Chemicals Baillie 33 Jun 3, 2026
Qorvo, Inc.
QRVO · US
Watch
Qorvo: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective

Rating Watch. At the current 102.74 USD, the standalone intrinsic value falls in a fair range of 100-120, with an ideal buy zone of 80-90; Apple accounts for roughly 50% of revenue, and QRVO is in the middle of the Skyworks merger (implied consideration around 108.46), leaving no clear margin of safety. Rating Watch: a real but unexceptional business whose price, distorted by deal arbitrage, does not yet offer enough cushion for a long-term owner.

Semiconductors Baillie 28 Jun 3, 2026
Trelleborg AB
TREL-B · ST
Watch
Trelleborg: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective

A Buffett-framework rating of Watch. Trelleborg is a high-quality engineered-polymer platform with solid cash flow and a sturdy balance sheet, yet ROCE of roughly 12% sits below target; at about SEK 399 it trades at 26-28x owner earnings, with a fair entry of SEK 260-310 and an insufficient margin of safety. Rating Watch: a quality industrial worth owning, but not at today's price.

Specialty Chemicals Baillie 33 Jun 3, 2026
Woodward, Inc.
WWD · US
Watch
Woodward: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective

A great company at a poor price. At roughly $344.7 today, a trailing P/E near 41.3x, and a market cap around $21.1 billion, Woodward is a genuinely durable cross-cycle earner with real engineering moats in aerospace and select industrial controls. But DCF and relative valuation both point to fair intrinsic value of $170-240, with an ideal buy range of $130-180, leaving no margin of safety at the current price. Rating Watch: a high-quality business that today looks far more like a bad price than a bad company.

Aerospace & Defense Baillie 30 Jun 3, 2026
ATI Inc.
ATI · US
Watch
ATI: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective

ATI is a high-barrier aerospace and specialty materials company whose operating quality has improved, with aerospace and defense now 68% of sales. But at the current price of $178.48 the stock trades at roughly 28.8x EV/EBITDA against an intrinsic value of only $60–145, leaving an insufficient margin of safety. Rating Watch: a strong business at the wrong price.

Defense Advanced Materials Baillie 30 Jun 3, 2026
Carpenter Technology Corporation
CRS · US
Watch
Carpenter Technology: A Long-Term Owner's View

Carpenter Technology is a leading aerospace specialty-materials company whose operating quality has improved sharply, yet at the current price of $487.25 (51x PE) the stock is extraordinarily expensive, with fair intrinsic value of only $150–190 and no margin of safety. Rating Watch: a fine business at a poor price, with future growth and peak margins already paid for.

Defense Advanced Materials Baillie 26 Jun 3, 2026
Materion Corporation
MTRN · US
Watch
Materion: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective

A beryllium and advanced-materials maker with a moderate moat, but at roughly $230 the stock sits far above a fair intrinsic value of $70–95, leaving no margin of safety. Resource scarcity, process know-how, and qualification-based switching costs are real, yet the current price already discounts years of flawless execution. Rating Watch: a good business at a bad price, with a fair buy range of $55–70.

Defense Advanced Materials Baillie 28 Jun 3, 2026
Sphere Corp
347700 · Korea
Avoid
Sphere Corp: A Value Study of Aerospace Specialty Alloys

From a Buffett lens, the verdict is Avoid. Sphere has reinvented itself as an aerospace specialty-alloy supply-chain operator (99.8% of revenue from aerospace alloys), but 2025 operating cash flow was -KRW 14.67 billion, and the KRW 1.65 trillion market cap already exceeds the KRW 1.544 trillion headline of the ten-year SpaceX contract. At the current KRW 32,500, the stock sits well above an optimistic intrinsic-value range of KRW 19,000–28,000, leaving no margin of safety. Rating Avoid: a good industry attached to a price that prices in too much.

Defense Advanced Materials Baillie 26 Jun 3, 2026
Filtronic plc
FTC · LSE
Watch
Filtronic: A Long-Term Value Study

Filtronic is a technically capable, financially healthy small-cap RF/mmWave supplier whose single greatest weakness is extreme customer concentration. At roughly 391.25p the stock sits far above our fair intrinsic-value range (120-180p) and even our optimistic ceiling (300p). Rating Watch: a decent niche technology company priced for many years of flawless, diversified, high-speed growth rather than a value stock with a real margin of safety; ideal buy zone 90-150p.

RF Components Baillie 29 Jun 3, 2026
Constellium SE
CSTM · US
Watch
Constellium: A Long-Term Value Investing Study

We maintain a Watch rating. Constellium is an aluminum processor whose technical depth is underappreciated yet whose cyclicality is inescapable. At the current price of $36.07 the stock looks clearly expensive against a conservative intrinsic value of $19–25 and sits near the top of a fair value of $28–35, leaving too little margin of safety. Rating Watch: a capable, cycle-bound aluminum fabricator worth tracking, with an ideal buy range of $24–30.

Aluminum Processing Baillie 31 Jun 3, 2026
STMicroelectronics N.V.
STM · US
Watch
STMicroelectronics: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective

A genuinely capable global semiconductor IDM in automotive, industrial, MCUs, power devices, and MEMS, but one whose business quality remains highly cyclical rather than that of a steady cash cow. At the close of 2026-06-02, the stock at $79.51 already sits near the floor of the $80–100 optimistic range and above the top of the $55–70 fair range, leaving no margin of safety. Rating Watch: a decent company at an optimistic price, with an ideal buy zone of $45–55.

Semiconductors Baillie 26 Jun 3, 2026
Velo3D, Inc.
VELO · US
Avoid
Velo3D: A Long-Term Owner's Perspective

Velo3D still has not proven it can generate positive Owner Earnings, and its growth depends on continuous dilutive financing. At $22.13, the share price sits far above an intrinsic value range of $0 to $18. Rating Avoid: an ideal entry zone of $3 to $6.

Additive Manufacturing Baillie 23 Jun 3, 2026
Tokyo Electron
8035 · TSE
Hold
Tokyo Electron Deep Dive

A high-quality equipment leader at a rich price. A near-monopoly in coat/develop and an installed base of 96,000 tools underpin its service cash flow; but FY2026 operating margin slipped to 25.6%, the record net profit was flattered by selling strategic holdings, and at the current 60,840 yen the static PE is near 50x with an owner-earnings yield of only 1.2%-1.7%. Rating Hold: ideal buy below 40,000 yen.

AI Semiconductor Equipment Baillie 52 Jun 3, 2026
Broadcom Inc.
AVGO · US
Avoid
Broadcom: A Deep-Dive Research Report

Great company, bad price. AI revenue is still accelerating (Q1 at 8.4 billion, Q2 guided to 10.7 billion) with an FCF margin near 42%, yet the current price of 481.57 dollars implies a TTM free-cash-flow yield of only about 1.3% (far below the 4.46% on the 10-year Treasury), already pricing in AI optimism that remains unverified ahead of Q2. Rating Avoid: a high-quality compounder whose price has front-run the very catalysts it still has to deliver, so we cut from Watch to Avoid.

AI Chips Baillie 57 Jun 3, 2026
U.S. Market
MARKET · US
Watch
U.S. Market Close Daily | 2026-06-02

AI semiconductors kept pushing the indexes to fresh highs on the 2026-06-02 U.S. close, but divergence across megacap tech, software, and breadth shows the market remains a high-level, structural risk-on rather than a broad-based advance. The main engine is the AI infrastructure chain, where Marvell and HPE drove a re-rating of chips, servers, and networking gear, offsetting Alphabet's financing dilution, higher oil prices, and Middle East risk. Rating Watch: the trend is strong and capital is willing to chase hardware backed by orders and compute capex, but the indexes sit at elevated levels and chasing strength on a new high alone is not worthwhile.

US Market Close Daily Jun 2, 2026
Bio-Techne Corporation
TECH · US
Watch
Bio-Techne Corporation: A Deep Value Investing Study

A high-quality life-science tools company trading at a rich price. At $51.68 the stock carries a trailing P/E of roughly 74.9x while three-year revenue has compounded at only 3.3%, so the margin of safety is thin. Rating Watch: ideal entry sits at $28-35, with the roughly $1 billion Wilson Wolf follow-on acquisition as the key risk to monitor.

Life Science Tools Baillie 27 May 31, 2026
Molson Coors Beverage Company
TAP · US
Watch
Molson Coors (TAP): A Long-Term Business-Owner View

At the current price of $39.53, we rate TAP a Watch. The cash flow is real (underlying FCF of roughly $1.1 billion) and the valuation is cheap (EV/EBITDA of 6.31x), yet beer demand is in structural decline and the moat is narrowing. Rating Watch: a genuine cash generator without a growth engine, with a fair buy range of $28–34.

Beverages Baillie 29 May 31, 2026
EPAM Systems, Inc.
EPAM · US
Cautious Buy
EPAM Systems: A Value Investing Deep Dive

A high-end digital engineering services firm with steady cash flow, roughly $876 million in net cash, and a no-longer-expensive valuation at about 14.7x earnings. The moat is moderate-to-weak and operating margin has slipped to 9.5%, leaving AI substitution and Ukraine exposure as the swing variables. Rating Cautious Buy: a financially resilient compounder priced near its conservative floor, with an ideal entry of $80–95.

IT Solutions Baillie 30 May 31, 2026
The Campbell's Company
CPB · US
Watch
The Campbell's Company: A Value-Investing Deep Dive

An understandable, decently cash-generative legacy packaged-food name whose ~$21 share price implies roughly 9–10x conservative owner earnings, but the margin of safety is too thin. Snacks remains weak and leverage runs high. Rating Watch: a company you can understand at a fair-to-cheap price rather than an outstanding business at a clear discount, with an ideal buy range of $16–19.

Packaged Foods Baillie 33 May 31, 2026
The Mosaic Company
MOS · US
Watch
The Mosaic Company: A Long-Term Business Owner's Research Report

An understandable fertilizer cycle stock with decent assets and a cheap-looking balance sheet, yet lacking a wide moat and stable free cash flow. Rating Watch: at the current 23.89 dollars it holds some value but is not cheap enough; the ideal entry sits at 16 to 20 dollars.

Fertilizers Baillie 32 May 31, 2026
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.
NCLH · US
Watch
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings: A Deep Value Study

A highly leveraged, capital-intensive second-tier cruise operator whose demand has recovered but whose moat is weaker than the leaders. At the current price of $18.34, the stock sits inside its fair-value range with an insufficient margin of safety. Rating Watch: a recovery story that does not yet give conservative long-term investors enough room for error; ideal entry $12–15.

Hotels & Lodging Baillie 32 May 31, 2026