Investment research through a long-term owner's lens

In early June, Micron fell hard from its all-time high, dropping as much as 13.3% intraday in a single session and pushing the question "has the AI memory supercycle topped?" to center stage. This piece uses our 71 semiconductor Baillie Ten-Question scorecards to make a contrarian call: the demand supercycle is real, but after Micron and Hynix rose roughly tenfold and crossed a trillion in market cap, the stocks have been priced to perfection. None of the 71 scores above 3 on either the expectations-in-the-share-price question or the what-the-market-is-missing question. The verdict: this is valuation reverting to cyclical fragility, not demand collapsing, and the most dangerous trade is buying the dip. We put the subjective odds of Micron drawing down at least 25% from its June 3 high within 12 months at roughly 60%.

When a big company joins the S&P 500, index funds are genuinely forced by the rules to buy it. The "inclusion premium" that used to come with that, though, has all but vanished over the past two decades. Drawing on the membership rules of the three major index families, the mechanical buying from $20 trillion in passive money, and first-hand academic evidence on the "disappearing index effect," this piece asks what a spot in an index is really worth. The verdict: passive demand equals roughly 7–8% of a new member's float and is genuinely measurable, but the excess return from announcement to effective date has fallen from 7.4% in the 1990s to 0.3% over the last decade. SpaceX cannot get into the S&P 500 and is about 15 trading days from the Nasdaq-100; its rock-bottom 4.25% float is the real variable.

We score every report in our library on two independent axes (the Baillie Ten-Question total, and where the current price sits in the valuation range) and drop all 760 reports onto one opportunity quadrant. This 2026-06-12 cut surfaces 15 high-score, low-valuation companies, and only one clears the entry gate: CATL. We publish every definition, every snapshot price, and our read on why each name looks cheap, and we write down six tests in advance so the post-mortem lands whether we were right or wrong. Our call: the real opportunity right now sits in "can't-see-far" discounts; buying into the high-score, high-valuation zone today is chasing.

Three years into the AI rally, leadership has rotated from compute chips to power, to memory, and now toward application software, and the question most people get stuck on is simply "where are we now." This piece reconstructs the rotation logic from verifiable data, the annual leaders, the capex trajectory, and the bottleneck of the moment. Money follows the tightest chokepoint in the supply chain, and whoever holds the chokepoint leads. Our read, June 2026 sits in the overlap between the late-middle of the infrastructure rally and the early innings of applications taking the baton. Memory and power are still the tightest bottlenecks, software applications are up just 17.6% over three years, and the application rally has not really begun.