Análisis de acciones · Visión de largo plazo

Análisis de inversión con la mirada de un propietario a largo plazo

El marco Zen Horizon que disecciona la calidad del negocio, los fosos defensivos y el valor intrínseco de la IA, la tecnología y la renta variable global, con una lectura clara del margen de seguridad.

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48/100 67Buffett Vigilar SG Micro: 42.7% H1 Growth at a 51.84% Gross Margin Proves Share and Content Gains, but the A Share at CNY 120.55 Is 105x Trailing Earnings and Above the CNY 89 Base Value SG Micro is a Beijing fabless-plus analog chip designer whose more than 7,200 saleable products span signal chain, power management and sensors, with about 94% of revenue sold through distributors. H1 2026 revenue rose 42.7% to CNY 2.60 billion and recurring profit 164.6% at a 51.84% gross margin as optical modules lifted network and computing to about 25% of sales, yet CNY 1.68 billion of net inventory, share-based pay of about 24% of attributable profit and an undisclosed distributor channel mean the quality problem has changed rather than disappeared. Rating Watch: the A share at CNY 120.55 trades at about 105 times trailing attributable earnings and above the CNY 89 base-case value with no margin of safety; the ideal buy price is CNY 42–48 and the acceptable hold range CNY 78–100. SG Micro Corp300661 · ShenzhenAnalog Chips28 de septiembre de 2026 39/100 Mantener Kubota Corporation: A ¥70bn Tariff Refund Lifts the FY2026 Margin to 12.2% from 10.1%, and ¥2,751.5 Sits 28–38% Above the ¥2,000–2,150 Conservative Value Kubota is an Osaka-based machinery group built around compact farm equipment, engines and construction machinery: Farm & Industrial Machinery produced 88.6% of H1 2026 revenue, North America supplied 42.1%, and a captive-finance book carried ¥2.23 trillion of finance receivables at June 2026. FY2026 guidance of ¥400 billion operating profit and a 12.2% margin includes about ¥70 billion of non-recurring US tariff refunds, so the company's own ex-refund margin is 10.1%, while operating cash flow over FY2021 to FY2025 was only 0.69 times cumulative parent net income and cumulative reported free cash flow was around negative ¥314 billion. Rating Hold: at ¥2,751.5 the shares trade at 10.8 times guided EPS but closer to 13 times refund-normalized earnings and 28–38% above the ¥2,000–2,150 conservative value, so the margin of safety is none and the ideal buy price is ¥1,550 to ¥1,650. Kubota Corporation6326 · TSEConstruction Machinery28 de septiembre de 2026 51/100 Vigilar Unitree Robotics: 5,215 Humanoids at a 63.2% Gross Margin Prove the Hardware, but CNY 488 Is 116x FY2025 Revenue and Sits Above the CNY 350 Base Value Unitree Robotics is a Hangzhou maker of humanoid and quadruped robots, components and embodied-AI software that debuted on Shanghai's STAR Market on August 19, 2026; humanoids supplied 51.8% of 2025 main-business revenue, and it sold 5,215 humanoids and 23,037 quadrupeds at 63.2% and 56.7% product gross margins. At CNY 488 it is worth CNY 197.38 billion, about 116x FY2025 revenue and 334x profit excluding non-recurring items, while H1 2026 revenue growth slowed to 48.54% and adjusted profit fell 19.34% as R&D and selling spending rose; filings still do not disclose how much humanoid revenue comes from productive industrial labor rather than research, education and display. Rating Watch: the operating evidence is materially more attractive than the stock price, which sits above the CNY 350 base fair value with no conservative margin of safety; the ideal buy price is CNY 105–120 and the acceptable hold range CNY 300–400. Yushu Technology Co., Ltd.688836 · ShangháiAI Industrials & Robotics28 de septiembre de 2026 38/100 74Buffett Mantener Cavco Industries: Q1 Revenue Was Flat Against the American Homestar Pro Forma While Comparable EPS Fell 22.5%, and $543.21 Sits 26–39% Above the $390–430 Conservative Value Cavco Industries is a top-three U.S. factory-built-home producer that also owns 92 retail stores and a small financial-services segment providing mortgages, chattel lending and manufactured-home insurance; factory-built housing supplied $2.16 billion of FY2026's $2.24 billion revenue. Q1 FY2027 revenue grew 9.5% as reported to $610.0 million but was flat against the $610.3 million pro forma including American Homestar, comparable diluted EPS fell 22.5% from $7.01 to $5.43, and housing gross margin slid to 20.8% from 22.6% even as backlog rose more than 50% from March to $298 million. Rating Hold: $543.21 sits almost exactly in the $520–575 base-value range, but it stands roughly 26–39% above the $390–430 conservative value, so the margin of safety is zero and the ideal buy range is $310–345. Cavco Industries, Inc.CVCO · EE. UU.Homebuilding25 de septiembre de 2026

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Empresas que dominan un segmento estrecho, ocupan el primer puesto o entran en el top tres mundial y conservan un poder de fijación de precios real: campeones de nicho en eslabones críticos de la cadena. El enfoque parte de los "campeones ocultos" de Hermann Simon, pero flexibiliza sus umbrales de tamaño y discreción (sin tope de tamaño ni exigencia de mantener un perfil bajo). Lo que cuenta es cuán estrecho es el segmento y cuán arraigada está la posición, desplegados a lo largo de ocho dominios funcionales.

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